THE FIRST 90 DAYS PRINCIPLE: WHY JANUARY TO MARCH DETERMINES THE ENTIRE YEAR

At the beginning of a new year, most business owners feel they have time. Twelve months look long. Targets feel flexible. Decisions can wait until there is more clarity.

In reality, the year is usually decided far earlier than expected. By the end of March, most businesses have already locked in their financial and operational trajectory. What happens for the remaining nine months is typically execution, not reinvention.

The first ninety days matter because they establish behaviour. Pricing habits, cost discipline, cash control, management structure, and forecasting accuracy all form early. Once embedded, they are difficult to unwind without disruption.

If you want to “win” the year, January to March is where it happens.

Pricing and Margins Are Set Early

Pricing decisions delayed beyond the March Quarter almost always lose impact. Once customers, sales teams, and internal forecasts settle into familiar assumptions, margins start to leak quietly and consistently.

By March, you should have absolute clarity on acceptable margin levels, discount limits, and pricing authority. If these are not defined early, discounting becomes cultural rather than tactical.

Strong businesses do not just generate healthy margins. They generate consistent margins. Buyers look closely at this. Stability signals control and confidence. Volatility suggests weak pricing discipline or reactive decision-making.

Even small pricing adjustments implemented early compound over twelve months. The same changes attempted later often face resistance or fail to fully land.

Cash Flow Behaviour Is Locked In Quickly

How your business treats cash in the first quarter usually defines the rest of the year. If debtor days start to drift early, they rarely self-correct.

January is the best time to reset payment expectations, clean up aged receivables, and enforce credit terms. By March, your debtor position should be tracking inside clear targets. If it is not, the problem is structural, not seasonal.

Strong cash control is one of the clearest indicators of management quality. Businesses that tolerate slow payers signal weakness, even if profits look healthy on paper.

Cash discipline established early gives you flexibility later. Poor cash habits force reactive decisions under pressure.

Cost Structure Must Be Addressed Before Momentum Builds

Many owners assume revenue growth will absorb inefficiencies. In practice, costs tolerated early become permanent.

The first ninety days should be used to clearly distinguish between costs that genuinely drive growth and those that simply exist because they always have. If your cost base is already bloated by March, operating leverage for the rest of the year disappears.

High quality businesses show predictable cost behaviour. Expenses scale logically with revenue. Buyers value this predictability because it reduces risk.

Deferring cost decisions until mid-year usually means accepting margin erosion rather than correcting it.

Management Clarity Cannot Wait

If roles, responsibilities, and decision rights are unclear in January, the business defaults back to the owner. This increases dependency and reduces scalability.

By the end of the first quarter, every core function should have clear ownership, defined outcomes, and accountability. This does not require new hires. It requires structure.

Businesses that rely heavily on the owner for day-to-day problem-solving struggle to grow sustainably and are penalised at exit. A clear management structure early in the year reduces this risk.

Forecast Credibility Is Built in the March Quarter

Forecasts lose credibility quickly when early assumptions do not match reality. If your numbers drift in the first ninety days, they are rarely trusted later.

January to March is when forecasts should be tested, challenged, and refined.

Businesses that adjust assumptions early and transparently build confidence in their numbers. Those who ignore early signals spend the year explaining variance.

Strong forecasting discipline is not about optimism. It is about control.

Why the First 90 Days Matter More Than the Last

By December, most outcomes are already determined. Strong finishes usually reflect strong foundations laid months earlier.

The businesses that perform well by year's end are almost always those that locked in pricing discipline, cash control, cost structure, management clarity, and forecasting accuracy early.

If January to March is treated casually, the rest of the year becomes reactive. If it is treated deliberately, the year tends to take care of itself.

In most businesses, the year is not won in December.

It is decided by March.